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Welcome to another NFL Christmas, this time featuring the commencement of a Week 17 that includes two tantalizing holiday games.
One of our gifts to you in that spirit? Numbers!
Here are eight statistics (as well as some bonuses along the way) that help sum up what’s been a wildly entertaining 2024 campaign to date.
11-0
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That’s the Kansas City Chiefs’ record in one-score games. The 14-1 Chiefs have won by more than 10 points just twice this season, and four of their wins have come by either one or two points.
Eight teams—including the 10-5 Commanders and 9-6 Broncos—have superior scoring margins than Kansas City (plus-78).
This despite the fact they’ve had the eighth-easiest schedule to date, according to ESPN’s Power Index.
Is this sustainable? We’ll soon find out. Regardless, it explains why Kansas City remains a prime contender despite so many flaws and vulnerabilities.
43.9
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That’s Patrick Mahomes’ passer rating on throws that have traveled at least 15 yards, which ranks dead-last among 34 quarterbacks who have attempted at least 35 such passes this year.
The legendary quarterback has just three touchdown passes to six interceptions on said attempts, and his 33.1 completion rate in those situations places him between Caleb Williams (33.3) and Anthony Richardson (30.1).
Again, can Mahomes and the Chiefs be trusted?
113.8
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That’s Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold’s passer rating in the fourth quarter/overtime of one-score games, which is the second-best total in the league among 30 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 35 passes under those circumstances this season.
Darnold may be one of just three quarterbacks who have been responsible for more than 20 turnover-worthy plays, according to Pro Football Focus, but he’s been good in key moments over and over again. He also leads the NFL in completed air yards per attempt.
That combined with plenty of support on both offense (Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison both rank top-25 in yards per target) and defense (the Vikes lead the NFC with 30 takeaways) makes it easy to understand why Minnesota remains well in contention at 13-2.
68.2
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That’s Aaron Rodgers’ on-target rate, which ranks ahead of just Anthony Richardson among 34 qualified passers this year. So while the 41-year-old’s receivers have indeed dropped plenty of passes (29 to be exact, which is the third-highest total in the league), the fact is Rodgers sure looks toast regardless.
He’s still had some throwback moments, but they’ve been few and far between and the inconsistency has been glaring for a guy who has not posted a passer rating between 92 and 98 all season. The league average is 92, and Rodgers has posted a sub-92 rating seven times and a 98-plus rating eight times.
67.3 percent
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That’s how often teams have scored touchdowns when they’ve reached the red zone against the Cincinnati Bengals, who are currently out of a playoff position despite the fact they’re the league’s sixth-highest-scoring team under the tutelage of superstar quarterback Joe Burrow.
The rate of 67.3 is the worst mark in the AFC.
That in combination with the league’s seventh-worst third-down stop rate (56.8 percent) helps explain why Cincinnati has lacked so much in the win column even while the offense has excelled and the defense has otherwise often been OK.
That D actually ranks in the top 12 with 23 takeaways and a sack rate of 23.4 percent. But they can’t get off the field, ranking 28th in the league with 2.31 points allowed per drive.
That’s a game-changer when you go 2-7 in one-score games in a highly-competitive division and conference.
10-25
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Here’s where we identify some pretenders.
The record above is the combined win-loss total this season for the Falcons, Broncos, Texans, Chargers and Commanders against opponents that currently have winning records.
Atlanta is 3-6 against winning teams and 5-1 against losing teams, Denver is 2-6 against winning teams and 7-0 against losing teams, Houston is 1-4 against winning teams and 8-2 against losing teams, Los Angeles is 3-5 against winning teams and 6-1 against losing teams, and Washington is 1-4 against winning teams and 9-1 against losing teams.
Some related facts:
- The 3-12 Browns have beaten more teams with winning records than the Texans or Commanders
- 90 percent of Washington’s wins have come against losing teams (its only victory against a winning opponent came in a five-turnover Week 16 effort against Philadelphia)
- The Broncos, Commanders and Chargers have played the second-, -third, and fourth-easiest schedules to date, according to the ESPN Power Index.
You really can’t trust any of these teams, even if they’re all currently in playoff positions.
67 / 39
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The first number is the total amount of 20-yard plays the Philadelphia Eagles have produced on offense (ranking behind just three other units), while the second number is the total amount of 20-yard plays the Eagles have allowed on defense (only one other unit has surrendered fewer than 46).
Nobody in football has put up more 40-yard plays than them (18) and they’ve give up just six (ahead of just three other units).
The ability to put up splash play after splash play while significantly limiting splash plays allowed on the other side of the ball is a critical reason the Eagles have regained prime contender status in 2024.
After all, they allowed 64 20-yard plays during that messy 2023 campaign.
(Fun side stat in favor of the Packers: Every defense has surrendered at least five 40-yard gains except Green Bay’s D, which has incredibly given up just one 40-yard play all season.)
2.99 / 2.97
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There are a lot of different statistical options to relay how dominant the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills have been this season, but let’s focus on the underrated points per drive metric, in which Detroit ranks first at 2.99 and Buffalo ranks second at 2.97.
Nobody else in the NFL has produced more than 2.80 points per drive, even the extremely explosive and high-scoring Ravens.
Both Buffalo and Detroit rank in the top five in red-zone touchdown rate, the top seven in third-down conversions, the top six in yards per play, the top seven in turnover margin and the bottom five in turnovers.
They’re the only teams in football that have outscored their opponents by more than 9.0 points per game, and if often feels as though they’re on a collision course to meet in what would be an epic Super Bowl matchup between two franchises that have never won the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
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